US Political Betting Statistics

The 2024 Presidential Cycle

Polymarket’s total trading volume rose from $73 million in 2023 to roughly $9 billion in 2024. The presidential winner market accounted for more than $3.3 billion of that on its own.

Kalshi entered late and from a standing start. A federal court ruled in its favour in September 2024, and the platform launched election contracts on 4 October, 32 days before the vote. It cleared over $1 billion in volume by November.

The gap between the two platforms was substantial through the cycle. In late October 2024, Polymarket showed roughly $2.6 billion traded on the presidential market while Kalshi reported just under $85 million.

What Happened After the Election?

Volume collapsed once the contracts resolved.

That is the structural feature of political prediction markets and the reason platform valuations do not rest on them. A presidential contract concentrates enormous activity into a few months, pays out, and leaves nothing behind. Polymarket’s activity fell sharply in the weeks after the result was called.

Both platforms responded by expanding into sports, which produces continuous rather than episodic volume.

The 2026 Midterms So Far

Source: NBC News analysis; platform reporting.

The midterm figure is small against a presidential cycle and large against any prior midterm. It will rise materially before November, so treat the July number as a floor rather than a total.

How the Two Platforms Differ?

Polymarket returned to the US market through its acquisition of QCEX, receiving an Amended Order of Designation from the CFTC on 25 November 2025.

Volume Comparison

Source: Pew Research Center; platform reporting.

The offshore entity remains roughly seven times the size of the US-regulated one. That gap is the clearest measure of how much of Polymarket’s activity comes from outside the regulated perimeter.

What Each is Actually Used For?

Neither platform is primarily a political one, and most coverage misses this.

Pew Research Center found that politics made up 90% of Kalshi trading volume and 65% of Polymarket volume during October and November 2024. Kalshi had not launched sports trading at that point.

Since July 2024, sports has accounted for 80% of total Kalshi volume. Sports, politics and cryptocurrency together represent 91% of Kalshi activity and 90% of Polymarket activity across that period.

These are sports platforms that occasionally host very large political events. Election cycles are spikes on a chart that is otherwise driven by games.

The Federal Position

The Commodity Futures Trading Commission regulates event contracts as swaps under the Commodity Exchange Act.

Kalshi challenged the CFTC’s refusal to allow election contracts and won in 2024, with the court describing the agency’s manipulation concerns as speculative. The CFTC reversed position and dropped its appeal in May 2025.

CFTC Chairman Michael Selig, confirmed in December 2025, has taken an active stance defending federal exclusivity. In August 2026 the agency used emergency authority under Section 8a(9) of the Commodity Exchange Act to order Kalshi to continue operating nationwide following New York’s lawsuit.

The State Challenges

Courts have reached opposite conclusions on nearly identical facts.

The dispute is jurisdictional rather than moral. States argue event contracts are gambling subject to their police powers. The CFTC argues they are interstate financial instruments under exclusive federal authority.

Where Things Stand for Political Contracts?

Almost all of this litigation concerns sports contracts rather than political ones.

Arizona is the exception. Its March 2026 filing included four counts of election wagering, covering contracts on the 2028 presidential race and two 2026 Arizona state races.

For anyone tracking political markets specifically, that distinction matters. The legal pressure on election contracts is much lighter than the headline volume of litigation suggests, because the fight is mostly about sports.